Bigger Than the Election

After security forces raided the student dorms last night, the faculty of Tehran University appear to have resigned en masse in protest.

This is far beyond being about Mousavi vs Ahmadinejad. This is about the system, and the people in charge trying desperately to hold it together by force rather than populat support.

Al Giordano speculated that it might take five to ten weeks for events to reach their resolution, much as they did in the Ukraine in 2004.

I can't decide whether that's pessimistic, in the sense that I can't imagine this trajectory can possibly sutain itself for even five weeks without a climax, or optimistic in the sense that it assumes things won't disintegrate into a full-blown civil war.