A Scalp For Nate

It appears that scourge of the statistical underworld, Mr. Silver, has taken down his first villain.

Crooked pollsters beware! Scamming samplers, tremble with fear! Even now, Mr. Silver may be creeping through your published results, getting ready to strike!

Who knows what evil lurks in the heart of doctored numbers? Mr. Silver knows!

Watch Me Bowie-ize!

I am not terribly thrilled with this particular performance of Five Years, truth be told. I've done it better. I was much happier with the run at Young Americans I took on the night this next one was filmed, but you only get a brief taste of it (I'm at about the 4:30 mark):


Kristin Chenoweth will be carolling outside Holt Renfrew this evening at 6:30.

I'm supposed to be getting my internet hooked up at my new apartment sometime between 5 and 8 this evening.


Inviting the Inmates To Run the Asylum

Big Bad John announces that the NRCC will no longer spend money in a contested primary, in the wake of the NY-23 debacle. Which is essentially an open invitation for the Club For Growth (who spent over a million supporting Hoffman's campaign in NY-23) and whatever other teabagger organizations spring up to try and primary anyone to the left of Ayn Rand.

In other words, it's open season on moderate Republicans, at least in the House.

The following video may provide a close approximation of the comedy value that spectacle should provide:

The Long View

Sully sees progress where I saw a loss of momentum.

Beltway Blinders and Other Tuesday Fallout

The narrative, of course, is "Big win for Republicans!" But that would have been the narrative almost no matter what, since the media needs to pretend the right hasn't gone collectively crazy and must be taken seriously.

The reality, on the other hand, is that the wingnuts cost the Republicans NY-23, a district they've held (by various designations, due to gerrymandering) for over a century. Even then though, Hoffman mostly lost because he was a carpet-bagging putz (as were far too many of his supporters) not because voters in upstate New York have rejected the teabagging lifestyle. I think Nate's right. Trying to draw national inferences from Tuesday's results is a fool's errand, which is probably why so many pundits are doing it.

The Virginia sweep was no shock, as the Dems have pretty much emptied the VA bench with Warner, Webb et al getting bumped up to the federal scene.

Similarly, Corzine losing was only a surprise in that New Jersey had a bit of a history of cock-teasing the Pubs without actually putting out. I suspect the morning after won't be a pretty one for the Garden State.

Maine was a disappointment though, as was the fact that Washington passed its referendum so narrowly. It's becoming clear to me that the pro-SSM forces badly need to re-frame that debate.

UPDATE: Over at the VC, Orin draws four lessons from Tuesday, while Kopel suggests Tuesday's big winner was... the NRA?


NY-23 gets crazier, as Scozzafava has apparently thrown her endorsement behind... Dem Bill Owens, and not Conservative Party loon Doug Hoffman.

This is a pretty good sign that the entrenched Congressional wings of the Dems and Pubs, at least, think they have more in common with each other than with the teabaggers.

Hmm, which brings up a scenario I hadn't considered before. If the Republican Party splinters, and the saner wing of the GOP finds itself in a losing battle with the far-right monster it created... well, just how big is that Democratic big tent, anyway? Would conservative refugees like Frum and Snowe et al, be welcomed in as Bluer Dogs?

It Was Bound To Happen

I've added Richie's Wednesday show at the Danforth Fox and Fiddle back onto my schedule, because I can (barely) see the bar from the front window of my new apartment.

Which means I can officially say I can see a karaoke bar from my window now. Sadly inevitable, really.

I've barely begun to make the Danforth my new 'hood, but I am liking it so far. It's a very different vibe from my old St Clair West neighbourhood (which is still my favorite part of the city, because it's so perfectly Toronto in microcosm) but it's got its own charm. And I say this as someone who is not a fan of Greek food at all.

October Travesties

Wow. 43 different songs sung in the month of October:

Always Something There To Remind Me - Naked Eyes
And If Venice Is Sinking - Spirit of the West
Because the Night - Patti Smith
Big Bottom - Spinal Tap
Bizarre Love Triangle - New Order
Brass In Pocket - Pretenders
Breakdown - Tom Petty
Copperhead Road - Steve Earle
Dead Leaves and the Dirty Ground - White Stripes
Dream Weaver - Gary Wright
Ever Fallen In Love - Buzzcocks
Feels Like the First Time - Foreigner
Girl U Want - Devo
Groove Me - King Floyd
High School Confidential - Rough Trade
I Will Follow - U2
Jackson - Johnny and June Cash (duet w/Suzie)
Karma Police - Radiohead
Keep Your Hands To Yourself - Georgia Satellites
Message In a Bottle - Police
Mirror in the Bathroom - English Beat
New Rose - Damned
Night Moves - Bob Seger
Ole Black & Blue Eyes - Fratellis
One Way Or Another - Blondie
Operator - Jim Croce
Rebellion (Lies) - Arcade Fire
Roll With It - Oasis
Ruby Tuesday - Rolling Stones
Say It Ain't So - Weezer
See You Again - Miley Cyrus
Senses Working Overtime - XTC
Starlight - Muse
Street Spirit - Radiohead
Sunny Afternoon - Kinks
The Bends - Radiohead
Thunder Road - Bruce Springsteen
Veronica - Elvis Costello
Virginia Plain - Roxy Music
We Can Work It Out - Beatles
You Spin Me Round - Dead Or Alive
You're My Best Friend - Queen
Young Americans - David Bowie