Showing posts with label Pundificating. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pundificating. Show all posts

Oh Lord, My God, Are There No Votes For A Widow's Son?

Huh. I just found out, through Anne Laurie over at Balloon Juice, that Paul Ryan is a widow's son.

Maybe picking Ryan was Romney's way sending out the Masonic distress call in code. Goddess knows he needs all the help he can get.

Bishop to a6 - Check!

I'm finding it hilarious that the Obama campaign is currently using Harry Reid, of all people, as point man on its current attack at Mitt Romney.

Of course there's some irony, and some tiny bit of backlash protection, provided by using a fellow Mormon to accuse Romney of paying nothing in income taxes for a decade. But the elegance and genius of the move is just astounding. (And I don't think there's any question Reid is doing this in coordination with the campaign... no way he'd go riding off on his own for a whole week like this, given the potential blowback.)

First, as Rachel Maddow points out, having Romney get into a scrap with the Senate Majority Leader makes Romney look weaker and like he's not really in Obama's class. (Which, as a politician, he clearly isn't.)

Second, it doesn't matter at all what Romney says in response to Reid's seemingly wild accusation. He can whine about Reid "putting up or shutting up" all he wants. The mere fact that he won't release his returns even in response to something as outrageous as this means people will assume that either a) Reid's accusation is true, or that b) it isn't true but what's in the returns is just as damaging. Keep in mind too that the rather inept and leak-prone McCain campaign already looked at his returns four years ago... whether or not you think that explains why they passed Romney over for Palin, it drastically increases the odds that the Obama campaign already has a pretty good idea of what's in those returns. Plus, Reid and the Obama campaign know damn well that there's basically zero chance Romney actually releases his returns to disprove the allegations. This is a guy who has been campaigning off and on for public office since the '90s and hadn't released any returns at all until the piddling drip of 2010 returns he reluctantly offered up for his presidential run.

Third, Romney's weak non-response further paints him as a bully who can dish it out but can't take it: a narrative that ties right in to the "haircut" incident from his school days and, frankly, his standard reaction to anyone who challenges him or doesn't back down from him.

Obama's just toying with the poor sap right now, and we're barely into August. Given Romney's innate cowardice and his campaign's tendency towards hiding their candidate, right now I'd put the odds at about 20% that they only debate once, and at about 10% that there are no debates between Obama and Romney at all. The more smacks to the mouth Romney takes, the more likely it becomes that he just turtles and tries desperately to let a tidal wave of super PAC money carry him into the White House.

Mitt Romney, Socialist

So Think Progress (and Wonkette, and Balloon Juice...) saw a clip of a Romney speech in which he says Americans should "get as much education as they can afford" and worked themselves into a tizzy over it, tossing out all the usual out of touch, Millionaire Mittens jokes.

What they missed was the rest of the clip, which heralded a sudden, drastic shift to the left by Romney which is assuredly going to allow him to win all the independents and Reagan Democrats and maybe even real Democrats and thump the Kenyan usurper right good and send him packing:

I think this is a land of opportunity for every single person, every single citizen of this great nation. And I want to make sure that we keep America a place of opportunity, where everyone has a fair shot. They get as much education as they can afford and with their time they’re able to get and if they have a willingness to work hard and the right values, they ought to be able to provide for their family and have a shot of realizing their dreams.

They "ought" to be able to provide for their families? Everybody knows wages for non-job creators have been stagnant for decades (see chart below from the EPI) and that it doesn't really matter how hard you work or how right your values are, you probably can't provide for your family these days on a single person's salary, and maybe not even with two people's salaries.



Romney is pointing to nothing less than a massive re-distribution of wealth from the top to the bottom with his talk of "ought" and "dreams". That's boilerplate class warfare rhetoric, folks.

I mean, it's just a small step from saying "if you work hard and have the right values you ought to be able to provide for your family" to "hey, why can't you provide for your family even though you work hard and have the right values?" And that way lies revolution and pitchforks and Stalinism.

So you go, Mitt! Keep talking that commie talk, and the working-class electorate will be putty in your soft, manicured hands.

Easily Debunked Romney Talking Points, Part 1

I'm finding the artlessness and incompetence of the Romney campaign really amusing. Take, for instance, the core talking point in this segment (in which Anderson Cooper can't help but point out a couple of other blatant lies being told by Romney's surrogate):




Gitcho's main point is that Romney's job creation record is better than Obama's, because the unemployment rate under Obama is still above 8% while Romney got the unemployment rate in Massachusetts under 5%. And, as she says, "We're happy to compare those records!"

So let's compare them:




Hmm. Obama improved his rate by about 1.1% (with the final 2012 number not yet in) while Romney improved his by 0.7%. I guess we could call that a wash (it should be easier to drop a bigger number, all else being equal)... except that there's one more bit of context:


  • Under Romney, the MA unemployment rate went from 5.2% (against a national average of 5.5%) in 2003 to 4.5% (against a national average of 4.6%) in 2007

In short, the MA unemployment rate under Romney failed to keep pace with the national average, improving only 0.7% when the whole country improved by 0.9%

Are you sure you're happy to compare these records, Ms. Gitcho?

The amazing thing to me is that Obama's job creation record is actually hard to defend in a typical pundit-sized sound bite. The defense becomes a debate over the stimulus and whether it was successful, and who's to blame for it being less effective than it could have been. But by making a comparison to Romney's own weak MA numbers, instead of attacking Obama's numbers in isolation, the Romney campaign shoots itself in the foot. The talking point all but rebuts itself.

Morons. Absolute morons.

This Is Why Nate Makes the Big Bucks

Nate Silver provides us with an entirely new paradigm for thinking about "swing states". His new "elastic state" model looks like it'll require a fair bit of fine tuning before it becomes a really useful tool, but as a metaphor it's really quite elegant.

And if you want to get meta on it, consider that with the inevitable exception of wacky ol' New Hampshire the most "elastic" states fall into the 'liberal/Democratic bastion' camp, while the least "elastic" states are all hard-core conservative... plus DC.

A Letter To the Minister of Canadian Heritage

Subject: Biology is a Science


Dear Minister:

As you asked that members of the public express their concerns regarding the recent "Sex: A Tell-All" exhibit at the Canada Science and Technology Museum, I have chosen to respond to you directly.

Biology, and human reproductive biology specifically, is in fact a science. I'm not sure whether you are aware of that or not. "Science" does not just refer to engines and electronics. If it did, the name of the museum would be redundant as "science" and "technology" would be synonyms. An exhibit carefully designed to educate teenagers on the subject of human reproduction would not only be within the museum's mandate but would be something it should be applauded for, as by every indication the exhibit appears to be a very sensitive and informative handling of what can be a difficult subject for some parents to discuss with their children.

Perhaps you should consider whether your own mandate involves fanning the flames of ignorance and trying to stir up mobs to attack museum exhibits, rather than incorrectly judging the museum's mandate. Not only do such actions violate the very meaning of "Canadian Heritage", they are unbecoming of your office and your portfolio as a minister.

I expect to hear soon that you will be issuing a public apology to the museum and commending its commitment to furthering scientific education.

Scratch Rubio Off Your Romney Veep Lists

Fallows reports that Rubio committed a cardinal conservative sin... admitting that the Obama administration might have gotten something right:
In this new century, more than ever before, America should work with our capable allies in finding solutions to global problems. Not because America has gotten weaker, but because our partners have grown stronger. It's worth pointing out, that is not a new idea for us. Our greatest successes have always occurred in partnership with other like-minded nations. America has acted unilaterally in the past - and I believe it should continue to do so in the future -- when necessity requires. But our preferred option since the U.S. became a global leader has been to work with others to achieve our goals. So yes, global problems do require international coalitions. On that point this administration is correct.

Romney's going to have enough trouble keeping the peons rabble GOP rank and file in line without having a running mate prone to saying non-inflammatory things about the Kenyan-in-Chief. Of course Rubio might be just smart enough to realize that, and decided to sabotage his chances of being asked rather than having to officially turn down the opportunity to wear Romney's doomed run like an albatross around his neck for the rest of his career.

We Protect Our Own

So a couple of days ago, a story did the rounds about a couple who were held at gunpoint by their new neighbours in Georgia after purchasing a foreclosed home:

The Kalonji family had just closed on a foreclosed home and were told by their real estate agent they should go over to the house and change the locks.
But when Jean Kalonji and his wife, Angelica, started working at the home, an armed man and another person who appeared to be the man’s son allegedly confronted them.
“He say to put the hands up and get out from the house, otherwise he would shoot us,” the husband told Channel 2.
The neighbors didn’t believe the couple when they told them they had bought the home and called the Newton County Sheriff’s Office. The Kalonjis didn’t have the closing papers with them, so deputies arrested them, charged them with loitering and prowling and took them to jail.

Jean Kalonji came over to America from the Congo. The local George Zimmerman wannabes, of course, didn't.

The Newton County Sheriff's Office has apparently come to their senses on this one, though:
A Newton County man and his son who authorities said held a gun on the new owners of a neighboring home were arrested Monday night and charged with aggravated assault, false imprisonment and criminal trespass.Porterdale resident Robert Canoles said he has no second thoughts about interrupting what he thought was a robbery in progress Thursday night at his neighbor's house -- though he is now facing criminal charges just days after deputies lauded his armed response.
Canoles said he and his teenage son heard noises from the once-foreclosed home next door, vacant for seven months. They grabbed their AR-15s and snuck up behind a man and woman fiddling with the front door lock.
Hooray, I guess? It's hard to get too excited when the armed folk were allowed to walk while the unarmed folk were arrested by the officers on the scene, especially given the pictures of each couple at that second AJC link, but at least someone eventually made the right call. This is the part that made me sick to my stomach though:
"I don't know what they can charge me with," Canoles said late Monday afternoon, before the interview with authorities. "This is my Second Amendment right. Look, this is the country out here, and we protect our own."
You can try to read that as neighbours watching out for neighbours. You can try to assume that if Jean Kalonji had actually been Jan Kruger, a white middle-aged immigrant from South Africa, he would have gotten the same reception from Canoles. But it's a very difficult assumption to make.

Bringing The War On Women Back Home


(h/t BJ)

The 'War on Women' thing is gonna have me in stitches all the way up to the election. Not that what the GOP has done and would like to do legislatively and culturally isn't fucked up, and not that I don't want to transanally ultrasound every last fucking one of their medieval, hypocritical, patriarchal idiot asses, but the fact that the party of Alpha Males and John Wayne and a 'kill 'em all and let St Ronnie sort it out' philosophy is waging a war on the (cough) "weaker sex", and is losing, just cracks me up. It reminds me so much of The Prophet Bill Hicks' bit on the War on Drugs:
George Bush says we are losing the War on Drugs. Well, you know what that implies? There's a war going on, and people on drugs are winning it! Hahahahahaha! What does that tell you about drugs? Some smart, creative motherfuckers on that side. They're winning a war, and they're fucked up! Lot-a y'all don't even know you're fightin', do you? You're sitting there... "Fuck, I'm watching Saturday Night Live". (tokes) "Are we winning? I feel like my flank is covered." (tokes) "Honey, bring me a beer. Got a war to win!"
(In the album version of that routine he compares it to Redcoats fighting Indians, but I like this riff better).

Everyone just needs to remember that there's no truce or cease-fire possible here. Anybody on their side smart enough to see the writing on the wall defected a long time ago. The only people left on the GOP side are the Kochs and Romneys and Aileses, those with a vested economic interest in maintaining the status quo (if not pushing things farther into the dark ages), and the Bill Donohues and Tony Perkinses, those who have abandoned any pretense of true Christian spirit and just become miserable trolls feeding on hate. There can be no negotiation with people like that. They will cling to the power they have with their last breath, and we will simply have to keep pushing forward, house by house, town by town, state by state, lie by lie, piece of bullshit legislation by piece of bullshit legislation, until the war is won.

This election can't just be about the White House. Romney is such a terrible candidate, it would pretty much take an act of God to put him over Obama. This election needs to be about the downballot races - pushing the Dems over 60 in the Senate, retaking the House, and winning back as many state legislature seats as possible. Their side is feeling the boot on the back of their heads and tasting concrete, and they are panicky and desperate. For once the left cannot let up and play nice.  That boot needs to come down hard in 2012.

Sloppy Math Is Sloppy

So according to the Washington Post, more evangelicals are voting in this year's GOP primaries.

The proof? The percentage of voters who call themselves evangelical is up to 50% from 44% in 2008.

Ummm... dunno if you've noticed, Washington Post, but overall turnout is down in the GOP primaries. Like, more than 10% down. So while evangelicals represent a bigger share of the total, that doesn't mean their raw numbers are up. In fact, they're just about the same.

But you are going to believe, the laws of mathematics or a narrative that requires 'evidence' of a close race to survive?

Team Uterati

I officially joined the Ladyparts Uprising and did my first little bit of digging around for Team Uterati tonight, as a break from grinding through the baseball prospect piece that various illnesses keep me from putting to bed.

What I learned in my digging: apparently back in my childhood home of Tennessee, anti-abortion forces didn't get the memo that the time for subtle, stealthy legislation has past, and that the time to be aggressively misogynist has arrived.

Where My Empathy Fails Me

I can, almost, put myself in George Zimmerman's shoes.

I can imagine being so fearful and tightly wound that simply seeing an unfamiliar figure, wearing the wrong clothes and walking at the wrong speed with the wrong body language, might trigger paranoia. I see enough of what passes for news among the right wing to know which buttons they are trying to press.

I can imagine being the right mix of arrogant and protective that I didn't think I could wait for the authorities, and had to take action myself before the Unfamiliar Figure did the things that the poison poured into my ear for years has led me to believe were about to happen.

I can imagine tracking the Unfamiliar Figure down, confronting him, and after a scuffle pulling my gun.

What I can't imagine doing, ever, is listening to these screams, listening to the Unfamiliar Figure beg for his life... and still pulling the trigger.

Trayvon Martin 911 Call

His father says he's not a racist. I have no reason to doubt him. Maybe George Zimmerman still pulls that trigger if Trayvon is Hispanic, or white, or whatever.

This is worse than racism though. This is a complete denial of one's own humanity. I don't comprehend how you can hear those screams, and then silence them with a bullet, without already being dead inside yourself.

I can't even say I'm angry at Zimmerman. If his life wasn't a miserable ruined hell before, it certainly is now.

My anger is reserved for the Sanford police, for not doing their fucking jobs, and for forcing Trayvon Martin's parents to listen to those screams.

How Democrats Dog Whistle

It's a little on the nose, but you have to respect Robert Gibbs' effort here.



It comes right at the end of the piece in the wake of Santorum's wins in Mississippi and Alabama, right about the 3:10 mark:

Look, Mitt Romney has said... his campaign has said that it would take an act of God for him not to be the nominee. Usually, a campaign with divinity on its side would be doing better than they are tonight.

Translation: he's not a Christian, he's a Mormon heretic.

Since the whole point of dog whistles is to inflame someone's prejudice without actually naming the prejudice, and that Romney's biggest weakness will be his difficulty in getting the GOP's evangelical base to muster any enthusiasm for him at all, it's nice to see the Obama campaign is already locking and loading their anti-Romney attack lines.

The Empty Suit

CNN is missing something interesting in its exit polls tonight.

According to the numbers they showed earlier, about half of the voters in the Alabama and Mississippi GOP primaries said that Romney was the most electable candidate. Of them, roughly two-thirds actually voted for him. Two-thirds of one-half = one-third of the whole.

Now look at the votes coming in. Romney's getting roughly one-third of the total in both states. That means that the only people voting for him are those who think he can beat Obama. Nobody is voting for him if they don't think he can win the general election.

Santorum and Gingrich are both pulling in votes for other reasons. People might not think they're the best candidate to beat Obama, but they get behind their guy anyway.

Romney? Basically nobody is voting for him for any kind of ideological reason. They are only voting for him if they think he can beat Oboogeyman.

Ask the Democrats in 2004 how well it works out when you nominate a candidate purely because you think he's your best shot at beating the other guy, and not because you actually like him or anything.

Team Bernie

It's time to face reality: the Democratic Party is populated by spoiled, whiny, petulant, 15-year-olds, at least based on the comments to Nate's NYT post from a couple days ago.

Twilight fans are more emotionally mature than that bunch. "Obama didn't give me my pony! Let's primary him!" "I don't think the country has suffered enough to accept my progressive wisdom, so I'm going to vote straight Republican in 2012!"

On the bright side, if that lot can get organized, watching the liberal equivalent to the Tea Party in action for the next two years will be a hoot. The pieces are mostly in place, after all: Jane Hamsher's already positioned herself to be their Pam Geller.

Where Are the Populists?

The flip side to this DougJ post about those Bainbridge posts (don't worry, I popped a Gravol before writing something that wankerific and nausea-inducing) is that a big part of the Tea Party's success, among non-racists anyway, is the complete lack of a populist appeal from the Dems.

Sure, Obama has managed to get some things done which will directly benefit the lower and middle classes, but none of it was sold as populism. Which leaves a vacuum that the Tea Party has filled, even if they filled it with crap. Deficit reduction isn't populist, but a "get big government off my back" sentiment is -- just as health care reform is populist, but a "let's make sure the insurance companies have a soft landing" sentiment isn't. I don't know whether the Dems are afraid of populism or just forgotten how to use it, but either way what should be a natural argument for them has become a foreign one.

Granted, it's hard to sell your policies as populist when the corporate media has no interest in reporting it as such, but the Dems need to figure out a way to do it. I still think Obama's a lock for 2012 simply due to a lack of competition, but 2014 and 2016 will be on us damn quick, and if they don't pick up the populist banner someone else will.

Who Will Be Canada's Pam Geller?

Looks like the jihadist threat is now targeting Canada. O noes!

You'll notice, I hope, what's missing from the article (and maybe even the intelligence report it's based on): any sense of proportion. How successful have those advocating a Muslim "parallel society" actually been? How many people attended that Mississauga conference, and did any of them have any actual influence in the Muslim-Canadian community?

I suspect these questions didn't come up because answering them would be counter-productive to the Post's fear-mongering...

Tucker Carlson Admits He's Not a Journalist

...and instead unleashes his inner wannabe James O'Keefe.

I think from now on, I'm just going to openly mock anyone who calls Tucker, or Breitbart for that matter, a journalist. There are stricter requirements for me to get my film reviews on Rotten Tomatoes than there are for someone to "earn" the title 'journalist' in today's media environment.

(h/t LGF)

Speaking Of Swift and Terrible Wrath

The anonymous douchefuckbagtard who sold his not-quite-a-hookup with Christine O'Donnell story to Gawker (which got posted this afternoon, and which I won't dignify with a link) has already been outed.

Just to be clear: I think O'Donnell has no place in the US Senate, and I think guys who sell hookup stories to gossip rags should be castrated. And not chemically. I'm talking with a meat tenderizer.

Welcome to Quahog?

Rob Ford's election as mayor of Toronto tonight has the local Twitterati in a tizzy. He's apparently George Bush, William Harrison Hays and Eric Cartman all rolled into one, a bloated jackanape who will single-handedly destroy the arts community and public transit in the city.

From where I sit, he's more buffoon than bastard, and the structure of the municipal government (not to mention Ford's own ego) should prevent him from working with city council and actually accomplishing any of the stuff he campaigned on. But it does beg the question: which fat, comedic character should be attached to Ford to belittle him?

Peter Griffin and Cartman have already been floated, but I'm leaning more towards Tommy Boy right now. Johnny LaRue is also a possibility, and has the benefit of being distinctly Canadian.

I may need to ponder this one for a while.