An Idle Thought

We know by now that Obama is a pretty shrewd cat, right? He proved that in the way he ran his campaigns for Dem nominee and President.

And the CW says that the Dems will be at an enthusiasm disadvantage during the 2010 midterms, and that the Pubs might take back some seats as a result, right?

So what if Obama is deliberately dragging his heels on LGBT equality so he can pull a rabbit out of his hat next summer on DADT and/or DOMA in order to fire up a big part of his base just in time for those '10 midterms?

I mean, what has he got to lose? The Pub base is going to be fired up anyway. They're already fired up to the point of blowing out their boilers. Is there some wingnut out there thinking "I can live with all this Marxism, but if that Kenyan bastard lets those fags get married I'm gonna get right out there and vote those Dems out of office!"?

Given the way health care reform has played out, nothing will get passed until late 2009/early 2010. Assuming there's a decent form of public option in it, that squares away one big chunk of the liberal base. Serious movement on the gay equality front a few months later squares away another big chunk, and gives Obama the troops on the ground to counter whatever wave of right-wing fury the Pubs can generate.

If that theory's correct, then the logical third plank of a 2010 'excite the Dem base' strategy would be movement towards immigration reform, with some version of amnesty built into it.

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