Every Little Bit

I'm going to donate half my poker winnings for the next little while to Haitian relief efforts.

As it turns out, my luck broke on FTP yesterday, and in the last two $3 90-seat KOs I've played I've notched two cashes, a 6th and a 2nd (one hand head's up when I was at a 3:1 chip disadvantage -- A4 vs A5, and the A5 held up... ah well.)

Clearly I have the Satanic powers of the Haitians to thank for that, since otherwise that's $27 bucks they wouldn't have collected. Right, Pat?

Happy New Arbitrary Gregorian Orbital Rotation!

Things I intend to do in 2010, roughly in order of attainability. These are neither resolutions nor goals. It's just life, which tends to take me where it will:

- get back in the gym
- try doing stand-up
- perform at Hip Hop Karaoke
- get to New York in April for the NarcoNews anniversary bash
- get back to Vegas
- finish three movie scripts
- get an agent for said script(s)

Color Me Unsurprised

Any decent poker player learns quickly to trust their instincts, even if logic can't explain a particular move. In fact that's one of the big things I still need to work on in my game, is heeding my first instinct more. I still try to deduce things I should (and do) already know the answer to. (Via Sully).

Definition of 'Running Good'

Had a roller coaster tourney on Full Tilt tonight. At one point I was forced to push all-in with king-five off from under the gun (had about four big blinds left). I got called by pocket 10s and pocket aces... and promptly flopped two pair.

I went on to win the tourney.

Kopp's Awful Play

I'm sure I won't be the only one in awe of how terrible a train wreck this was, but last night Billy Kopp went out in 12th place in the Main Event of the WSOP by making one of the worst plays I've ever seen in any tournament of any size.

He was sitting in 2nd in chips, with over 20 million and made a classic pressure raise, bumping it from an early position with 5-3 diamonds. Nothing wrong so far. He got one caller, from a blind -- Darwin Moon, the chip leader, who was the only guy at the table who had him covered.

Flop hits K high, and three diamonds. Both players check.

Turn hits the two of hearts, pairing the board. Moon checks. Kopp bets out 2 million... and Moon check-raises to 6 million.

Now, if you're Kopp, what should your thought process be here? You flopped the baby flush, but Moon is showing some kind of strength. Maybe he has the ace of diamonds. Maybe he has a two and made trips, or something like off king-queen (or jack, or 10) of diamonds. Lots of hands that could catch up on the river. Or maybe he flopped a mediocre flush of his own. Less likely, maybe he flopped the nut flush, or hit two pair or trips on the flop, and you're now drawing dead.

Most importantly, what you should be thinking is, "This is the one guy at the table I do not want to get balls-deep with, because he's the only guy who can bust me out."

Kopp apparently never got around to that last thought.

He responded to Moon's raise by re-raising all-in. Moon called, showed QJ of diamonds, and Kopp was done.

Dude, you were three eliminations from the final table, and in great chip position. Maybe you just call the raise; possibly you come back over the top with a smallish re-raise of your own (although 'smallish', in this case, would have meant a bump to 9 or 10 million).

The absolute last thing you should be doing is pushing all your chips into the middle, against the one person with enough chips to actually call, when there is a decent chance you could be drawing stone dead.

Council Bluffs

At the moment I feel the need to write about something that isn't Iran, so here's the rules to that Omaha varient I mentioned earlier. The game isn't my invention; if I figure out who did I'll add the appropriate credit.

Council Bluffs is essentially Omaha Eights-or-Better, only it's not played as a split pot game. The entire pot is either taken by the best low hand (if there's a qualifying Omaha low on the board), or the best high hand (if there isn't.)

As with Omaha and O8B, you deal four cards to each player, following by a round of betting. A three card flop is revealed, followed by a round of betting, then a single turn and river card are revealed, each followed by a round of betting.

Players then make their best five card hand using exactly two cards from their hand, and exactly three cards from the table.

If there are three different cards eight or lower on the board, 'best hand' then becomes the best low hand. Your best hand isn't determined by normal 'lowball' rules, though, as you must use three cards eight or lower from the board. The cards you use from your hand have no such restriction.

Example 1: Two players show down their hand at the end. The board is A-2-8-10-J, meaning the best low hand will take the pot. Player A shows A-2-Q-K; Player B shows 10-J-Q-K. Because both players must use the A-2-8 from the board, Player B will take the pot by using their 10-J; Player A, having been counterfeited on their A-2, must use their Q-K.

If there are not three different cards eight or lower on the board, however, the hand is played just as if it were regular high Omaha, and the best poker hand takes the pot.

Example 2: Same two players, same hole cards, but the board is now A-2-2-10-J. Player A and Player B now tie with ace-high straights (both using A-J-10 from the board, and K-Q from their hands) and chop the pot.

Strategically, it's quite different from either 'regular' version of Omaha (high or O8B). For example, consider the following:

Your hand: A-A-K-Q

The board: A-A-2-9.

Currently, you hold the absolute best possible high hand -- quad aces. If the river card makes a low, though, (24 outs to do so -- any card three through eight) your hand is dead. You'll be playing the worst possible low hand, using your K-Q.

That potential uncertainty as to whether the board will play high or low heading to the river is what makes the game so evil, and what makes its name (Council Bluffs being the smaller city in Iowa across the Missouri River from Omaha) so appropriate. The winner is often going to be the player who can make it 'across the river' with their hand intact.

One other strategic tip I've gleaned from the little that I've played the game so far: low pocket pairs are worth even less than they are in regular high Omaha, since even if you hit trips the odds are that much better the hand will be played for low, and your trips will be worthless.

Personally I think the game is brilliant. It fits nicely into the Omaha 'family' but is different enough to offer some very unique problems and opportunities, and it has at least as much 'heartbreak' potential as other forms of Omaha.

Amusing Poker Discussion

Jeff Goldberg has a post (and a follow-up) outlining a dilemma in his home poker game involving high/low seven-stud, which they still play as a declare game (i.e. rather than cards speaking, you have you declare whether you're going after the low half of the pot, the high half or both.)

As I said in my email to him, explaining why he shouldn't have won any part of that pot, "This is why nobody plays declare games any more..."

It's a reminder that poker, just like anything else involving competitive human interaction, evolves over time. Which also reminds me that at some point I should post up the rules to Council Bluffs, the Omaha spin-off someone in one of my regular games developed. (Council Bluffs, if you don't get the joke, is the smaller city in Iowa across the Missouri River from Omaha -- and when I explain the rules you'll understand why 'crosssing the river' is such an important part of the game...)

I'm (Almost) Done with Ultimate Bet

Just pulled most of the money out from Ultimate Bet.

Anyone who knows anything about the history of the site might be wondering what took me so long. The fact of the matter is I misssed the scandal completely; I'd pulled most of my money out before the 'superuser' revelations became public, and only realized I had some loose change left in my account about six months ago. Trying the 'build it up from microlimit' plan, I was at about $500 in my account at its peak.

I've had a run of awful beats lately to whittle that down some, but that's not why I'm packing it in. In fact I'm usually the guy making fun of anyone at the table whining about their bad beats and how UB is 'rigged' against them (like anyone able to cheat online is going to waste their time at a $10 sit 'n' go. Sheesh.), and the worst beat I've still ever had at poker came in a live game (runner-runner to make a straight flush wheel for the other guy in O8B, when I was set to scoop, at worst, three-quarters of the pot on the flop.) I've even had a solid money finish within the last week (5th of 434 in a $5 tourney... cashed for about $130)

No, the reason I'm pulling up stakes is something a little more insidious. I often play two tables at the same time, and what I've been noticing is that any time two hands are dealt to me at exactly (or almost exactly) the same time, or flops hit the felt at the same time on both tables, the cards are identical, or nearly so, far too often for the odds to account for it.

For instance, I might get K clubs 4 hearts at one table, and K clubs 4 hearts at the other. Or one flop might be 6-6-3 with a heart draw, while the other is 6-6-J with a heart draw. You get the idea.

Now it's certainly possible this is just selective memory at work, at that I'm not paying attention when the simultaneous deals don't synch up.

But my gut right now is telling me that their randomizer is tied to the clock, and if it is it's exploitable, not to mention generally sketchy. And given UB's security history, I'd just as soon get out now before the next 'scandal' hits the site and kills it.

(The 'almost' in the title relates to the fact that once again, I left some loose change in the account. Building up from scraps by starting at microlimit is always a fun exercise, so I might use UB for that purpose, and then chop the account down at regular intervals.)

In the meantime I'll be looking for another site to play at... probably FTP.

Trusting My Instincts

While there are plenty of areas of my poker game I need to work on, the one that keeps kicking me in the ass is my instincts. Not that they aren't pretty good -- they are -- but I don't trust my reads all the time.

Two examples from this weekend:

Playing Omaha, I'm on the button and limp in with AQ22 double-suited in clubs (the nut draw) and hearts. Plenty of other limpers built the pot (which is usual for that crowd). Flop hits K-10-7 with two hearts. Ray bets a couple hundred in chips from middle position, but a bet from him means very little usually and he gets about five callers, myself included. Turn hits the 4 of clubs, now giving me both flush draws and the inside draw to Broadway, so I'm definitely interested in seeing that river. I check, as does everyone else until Bob a few seats before me, who bets 500. A bet from Bob does mean something, but I still have great odds to call. I consider a raise but give him enough respect to just flat call. Everyone else folds but Ray.

River is the 2 of spades. Bob fires out 1500 when it's his turn to bet.

I hem and haw. I've hit trips, but my gut is telling me Bob has a higher set. He's not a reckless player, and he very easily could have just called that bet on the flop, taken the lead on the turn and bet big when none of the draws hit. On the other hand, he might do the same thing with a kings over two pair kind of hand. 1500 was a huge chunk of my stack, and represented about half what was in the pot, giving me good odds. I reluctantly called based on the odds, and Bob showed his pocket kings.

Same kind of situation arose in the 'main event' hold 'em tourney we have on these weekends. We're down to the final five -- top four spots pay out. I limp in under the gun with A2 spades. Ian completes from the small blind and Willie, a more aggressive player, checks. Flop hits 10-8-5 with two hearts. Both blinds check. I consider firing, but I'd been firing at a lot of pots with position in the last while and Ian has a rep for not putting up with that, so I just checked.

Turn is the 2 of clubs. Both of them check again, I bet out 1200 (blinds were at 400-800), Ian flat calls and Willie gets out of the way. Hmm.

River shows the ace of diamonds. Ian checks, I bet another 1200 and he comes over the top all-in for another 4300.

Yes, I know. Probably shouldn't have bet the river in the first place. But what could he have to beat me? If he had a better two pair I can't imagine he would have checked twice with that board. He would have taken a stab at it. He isn't the kind of player to bluff with a busted flush draw, not with me representing something. And there wasn't any other... oh. 3-4, to make the wheel, calling from the small blind because it was cheap. It was the only thing that made sense.

And yet I called off two-thirds of my stack anyway, really just to prove to myself I was in fact correct. And I was.

I still finished third in the 'main event', and was well up for the weekend ($250 bankroll, came home with $465. We mostly play $30 buy-in tourneys, with the hold 'em tourney being $60 and some side $20-$10 rebuy games as well.)

At some point I assume I'll be confident enough in those kinds of reads and deductions that I won't need to make huge, stupid calls to reinforce them, and based on my recent online play I thought I was already at that point. Apparently not.

Tales of Staggering Idiocy!

Poker-themed edition...

A couple of days ago I'm in an online nine-player single table sit 'n' go. Four people are left, top three finish in the money. The short stack has checked out; either he lost his connection or simply gave up, and he now no longer had enough chips to even meet the big blind.

Let me stress this. In two hands, the short stack will be forced all-in on the big blind and will probably be eliminated. Barring some bizarre series of miracle hands for the absentee short stack, the other three of us are guaranteed a profit if we do nothing more than sit there.

The player running 3rd chooses that hand to push back against the chip leader, and eventually raises all-in after the turn with nothing more than two over cards (KQ off). Needless to say the chip leader has a real hand (which is why he'd raised pre-flop, bet the flop and bet the turn...), called, and the idiot was eliminated on the bubble.

Two overs. Not even some kind of semi-bluff draw for an inside straight. Just two overs.

I mean, I guess if you're playing to lose money for tax purposes, it makes some sort of sense.

The Drama You've Been Craving

So tonight was the final night of karaoke at Reilly's, as the bar is closing after its abortive relaunch.

Because the universe loves cliches, a bar fight broke out (over a poker game no less) and the place shut down early.

Having listened to a few accounts, here's how I think the final hand went down:

Drunken Dickwad #1 holds A2. Drunken Dickwad #2 holds AJ.

The flop is all rags, including a deuce. One of the dickwads pushed all-in and the other one calls. Turn is a blank, river is a jack.

Drunken Dickwad #1 reaches for the pot. Drunken Dickwad #2 grabs Drunken Dickwad #1's hand (his real fleshy hand, not his cards) and wrenches back one of his fingers. Play resumes, and by 'play' I mean 'further idiocy'.

Can't imagine why I never sat in on one of those games in all the times I was there.